AI Computing Power Supply Chain Weekly Report: May–June 2026 Period
This week’s core focus is on the Q1/Q2 earnings disclosures of leading overseas computing power companies. NVIDIA, AMD, and Arista Networks maintained high single-quarter revenues, providing a demand-
Signal Overview
Core Signal Analysis
Signal 1: NVIDIA Corp Q1 FY2027 Revenue Exceeds USD 80 Billion, High Operating Income
What happened: According to SEC filings, for the quarter ended April 26, 2026, NVIDIA achieved revenue of USD 81.615 billion [SEC] and operating income of USD 53.536 billion [SEC].
Why it matters: As a core downstream player in the computing power industry chain, its revenue scale directly reflects the intensity of terminal AI training and inference demand. High operating income indicates that pricing power remains solid, providing the strongest anchor for order visibility among upstream optical module, connector, and PCB manufacturers.
What would invalidate this: If guidance for subsequent quarters is significantly lowered, or if inventory turnover days deteriorate markedly, current high revenue may include channel stocking rather than final consumption, requiring a revision of judgments regarding its sustainability in the second half of the year.
Signal 2: Ciena Corp Q2 FY2026 Sequential Revenue Growth, Stable Net Margin
What happened: According to SEC filings, for the quarter ended May 2, 2026, Ciena achieved revenue of USD 1.571 billion [SEC] and net income of USD 218 million [SEC].
Why it matters: Ciena primarily serves the telecommunications and Data Center Interconnect (DCI) markets. Its sequential revenue growth and sustained profitability confirm the prosperity of the optical transmission layer in cross-regional data scheduling, indirectly validating the demand resilience of high-speed optical modules in non-direct connection scenarios.
What would invalidate this: If gross margin declines significantly due to non-one-time factors, or if backlog decreases markedly on a sequential basis, judgments regarding the sustainability of its DCI business need to be revised.
Signal 3: Coherent Corp Q3 FY2026 Net Income Turns Positive and Expands
What happened: According to SEC filings, for the quarter ended May 2, 2026 (Note: Coherent’s fiscal year ends in June; Q3 typically covers March–May or is adjusted according to the specific fiscal calendar; here we rely on the Q3 FY2026 data provided in the outline), Coherent achieved revenue of USD 1.806 billion [SEC] and net income of USD 191 million [SEC].
Why it matters: Coherent is a key supplier of optical chips and passive components. The turnaround and expansion of net income indicate improved operational efficiency and a potential increase in the proportion of high-margin products following earlier integration efforts, reflecting profit recovery in the upstream materials segment of optical communications.
What would invalidate this: If revenue growth slows and gross margins retreat in subsequent quarters, judgments regarding the sustainability of its profit recovery need to be revised.
(Note: AMD and Arista Networks also reported strong single-quarter revenues of USD 10.253 billion [SEC] and USD 2.709 billion [SEC], respectively. The direction is consistent with the above core signals, jointly forming an evidence chain for high capital expenditure in overseas computing infrastructure.)
Cross-Source Verification
1. Consistent Direction in Overseas Computing Power Chain
NVIDIA (USD 81.615 billion [SEC]), Arista (USD 2.709 billion [SEC]), and AMD (USD 10.253 billion [SEC]) all reported strong revenues in Q1/Q2 2026. Overseas corroboration. Used only for directional support and does not enter the core conclusion. At least no obvious demand cliff is visible. This aligns with the high-growth trend previously disclosed by domestic optical module manufacturers.
2. Internal Consistency Check for Domestic Optical Module Leaders
Zhongji Innolight (中际旭创):
Full Year 2025 Revenue: RMB 38.240 billion [CNINFO]
H1 2025 Revenue: RMB 14.789 billion [CNINFO]
Q3 2025 Single-Quarter Revenue: RMB 10.216 billion [CNINFO]
Cumulative First Three Quarters 2025: RMB 25.005 billion (H1 + Q3)
Q1 2026 Revenue: RMB 19.496 billion [CNINFO]
Q4 2025 Revenue: RMB 13.235 billion (Derived Value; calculated by subtracting the cumulative first three quarters of RMB 25.005 billion from the full year total of RMB 38.240 billion)
Verification Logic: Q1 2026 single-quarter revenue (RMB 19.496 billion) is significantly higher than Q4 2025 (RMB 13.235 billion). At least at the level of disclosed figures, no obvious logical break is observed.
Eoptolink (新易盛):
Full Year 2025 Revenue: RMB 24.842 billion [CNINFO]
H1 2025 Revenue: RMB 10.437 billion [CNINFO]
Q3 2025 Single-Quarter Revenue: RMB 6.068 billion [CNINFO]
Cumulative First Three Quarters 2025: RMB 16.505 billion (H1 + Q3)
Q1 2026 Revenue: RMB 8.338 billion [CNINFO]
Q4 2025 Revenue: RMB 8.337 billion (Derived Value; calculated by subtracting the cumulative first three quarters of RMB 16.505 billion from the full year total of RMB 24.842 billion)
Verification Logic: Q1 2026 revenue (RMB 8.338 billion) is basically flat compared to Q4 2025 (RMB 8.337 billion). At least at the level of disclosed figures, no obvious logical break is observed.
3. Record of Anomalies
TFC Optical Communication (太辰光) Q1 2026 revenue decreased by 8.04% year-over-year [CNINFO]. This performance diverges from the industry’s overall high-growth trend. Flagged as uncertain, low-evidence weak corroboration, and excluded from the core judgment. Attention should be paid to whether its product structure deviates from mainstream high-speed modules or if there are risks related to customer concentration.
4. Status Explanation for Marvell Technology
Marvell Technology Q1 FY2027 revenue was USD 2.418 billion [SEC]. Flagged as uncertain, low-evidence weak corroboration, and excluded from the core judgment.
Next Issue Watch List
Domestic Manufacturers’ Half-Year Report Previews
Observation Content: Leading companies such as Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink release their 2026 semi-annual performance previews.
Trigger Condition: Subject to the disclosure date of the next formal periodic report (A-share semi-annual reports are typically released by the end of August, with previews potentially earlier). Verify whether the high growth rate in Q1 continues into Q2.
Marvell’s Guidance for Subsequent Quarters
Observation Content: Whether Marvell provides a clear breakdown of full-year revenue or the proportion of revenue from AI-related businesses.
Trigger Condition: Subject to the disclosure date of the next formal 10-K/10-Q. To move out of the "low-evidence weak corroboration" status.
Verification of TFC Optical Communication’s Performance Recovery
Observation Content: Whether TFC Optical Communication’s 2026 interim report shows a sequential rebound in revenue or an improvement in gross margin.
Trigger Condition: Subject to the disclosure date of the next formal periodic report. To explain the reasons for the year-over-year decline in Q1.
Sustainability of Ciena’s Telecommunications Orders
Observation Content: Whether Ciena mentions specific evidence of recovering capital expenditure by telecommunications operators in its next earnings report.
Trigger Condition: Subject to the disclosure date of the next formal 10-K/10-Q. To distinguish between DCI demand and telecommunications-side demand.
Glossary
Disclaimer: This report is compiled based on public data and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; please invest with caution.